Anterior Clinoidal Meningioma (ACM)
Systemic complications, worsening motor deficit and cognitive decline after surgery for anterior clinoidal meningioma, from 10 pre-operative variables.
- Systemic or Medical Complication
- Motor Deficit Worsening
- Cognitive Decline
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Risk Assessment Results
For research and investigational use only. Not a medical device.
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Predicted Outcomes
Each estimate is produced by a model developed and validated specifically for that outcome.
Systemic or Medical Complication
Probability of a systemic or medical complication after surgery.
Motor Deficit Worsening
Probability of a new or worsened motor deficit after surgery.
Cognitive Decline
Probability of new cognitive decline at discharge after surgery.
Methodology
The models were developed on 231 patients treated in Bologna, Cesena and Liverpool. Each was first developed in Bologna and Cesena and evaluated on an independent external cohort from Liverpool; the cognitive decline model was developed in Bologna alone. The predictions are probabilistic estimates derived from historical data.
Structured Input
You enter 10 preoperative variables through one guided form: patient baseline and symptoms, and radiological characteristics.
Frozen Model
Each outcome uses a ridge-penalised logistic regression on eight of those variables, with its coefficients served unchanged.
Probability & Band
The model returns an individual probability, placed into one of four bands defined a priori relative to that outcome's event rate in the development cohort.
Known Limits
The estimates do not account for what happens in theatre, for surgeon judgement or for how your unit works.
Model & Cohort
Anterior Clinoidal Meningioma (ACM) was developed on a retrospective cohort of patients operated for anterior clinoidal meningioma in Bologna, Cesena and Liverpool, and externally validated on the Liverpool cohort.
Validation Design
Internal performance was estimated by cross-validation within the development cohort. External performance was measured on the independent Liverpool cohort by a model developed in Bologna and Cesena (Bologna alone for cognitive decline). The coefficients are read at runtime by this calculator rather than refitted.
Per-Outcome Performance
| Outcome | Model | External AUROC (95% CI) | Internal CV AUC (95% CI) | Brier | Calibration slope | Calibration intercept |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Systemic or Medical Complication | Outcome_Medical_Systemic@0e2101e | 0.85 [0.64–0.97] | 0.76 [0.67–0.84] | 0.106 | 1.252 | -0.739 |
| Motor Deficit Worsening | Motor_Deficits@fac260c | 0.68 [0.48–0.86] | 0.73 [0.64–0.81] | 0.160 | 0.848 | 0.522 |
| Cognitive Decline | Cognitive_Decline@1c9e8c1 | 0.73 [0.57–0.87] | 0.59 [0.42–0.76] | 0.193 | 4.032 | 0.706 |
External AUROC, Brier score and calibration are measured on the Liverpool cohort; the internal AUC by cross-validation on the development cohort.
Risk Bands
The upper edge of the Low band is the highest predicted risk at which the model still flags at least 85% of the patients who had the outcome, so a Low estimate is the most reliable way to rule a complication out. The observed event rates were 15.6% for a medical complication, 13.0% for a new or worsened motor deficit and 13.9% for cognitive decline.
| Outcome | Low | Intermediate | High | Very high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Systemic or Medical Complication | < 0.090 | 0.090 – 0.250 | 0.250 – 0.450 | ≥ 0.450 |
| Motor Deficit Worsening | < 0.090 | 0.090 – 0.150 | 0.150 – 0.300 | ≥ 0.300 |
| Cognitive Decline | < 0.130 | 0.130 – 0.170 | 0.170 – 0.200 | ≥ 0.200 |
Contact & Citation
Version
v0.2.0 · models@14922fe