Chronic Subdural Hematoma (CSDH)
Poor functional outcome at discharge and death within one year after surgery for chronic subdural hematoma, from 12 pre-operative variables.
- Poor Functional Outcome at Discharge
- 1-Year Mortality
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Risk Assessment Results
For research and investigational use only. Not a medical device.
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Predicted Outcomes
Each estimate comes from a model developed for that outcome.
Poor Functional Outcome at Discharge
Probability of a modified Rankin Scale score of 3–6 at discharge; in-hospital deaths count as 6.
1-Year Mortality
Probability of death within 365 days of discharge.
Methodology
Research use only. Developed on 518 patients operated for chronic subdural hematoma at a single centre (Bologna, 2009–2011 and 2021–2024); internally validated only. External validation is ongoing: to contribute data, see the Collaborate page. Not a substitute for clinical judgement.
Structured Input
You enter 12 preoperative variables through one guided form: demographics, comorbidities, clinical presentation and hematoma side.
Frozen Model
Gradient boosting for functional outcome and a random forest for 1-year mortality, each recalibrated, served unchanged.
Probability
Each model returns a probability, shown as a whole-number percentage. There are no risk bands.
Known Limits
The estimates do not account for what happens in theatre, for surgeon judgement or for how your unit works.
Model & Cohort
Chronic Subdural Hematoma (CSDH) was developed on a retrospective cohort of patients operated for chronic subdural hematoma in Bologna.
Validation Design
Performance was estimated by 10 × 5-fold repeated stratified cross-validation on the development cohort, refitting and recalibrating inside every fold. There is no external validation yet.
Per-Outcome Performance
| Outcome | Model | AUC (95% CI), 10 × 5-fold repeated CV | Brier | Calibration slope | Calibration intercept |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor Functional Outcome at Discharge | csdh_mrs_v1@6fd4196 | 0.80 [0.76–0.83] | 0.182 | 1.02 | -0.00 |
| 1-Year Mortality | csdh_mortality1y_v1@68248b9 | 0.69 [0.63–0.74] | 0.139 | 1.01 | -0.01 |
518 patients; 292 had a poor functional outcome at discharge and 95 died within a year. Every figure is from 10 × 5-fold repeated cross-validation of the whole fitting procedure; the AUC interval is from 2,000 bootstrap resamples.
Contact & Citation
Version
v0.1.0 · models@55124ca